Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

"In Masters of Uncertainity, Phaedra Daipha offers a new framework for understanding decision-making practice after spending years immersed in a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather, Daipha shows how they enlist an onmivorous appetite for information and improvisational collage techniques to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. This richly detailed and lucidly written book advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts new light on how we make decisions in the digital age"--Page {4] of cover.

The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative convective model for climate simulations, and large-scale models for numerical weather prediction.

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Flood catastrophes which happened world-wide have shown that it is not sufficient to characterize the hazard caused by the natural phenomenon "flood" with the well-known 3M-approach (measuring, mapping and modelling). Due to the recent shift in paradigms from a safety oriented approach to risk based planning it became necessary to consider the harmful impacts of hazards. The planning tasks changed from attempts to minimise hazards towards interventions to reduce exposure or susceptibility and nowadays to enhance the capacities to increase resilience. Scientific interest shifts more and more towards interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to avoid disaster. This book deals with many aspects of flood risk management in a comprehensive way. As risks depend on hazard and vulnerabilities, not only geophysical tools for flood forecasting and planning are presented, but also socio-economic problems of flood management are discussed. Starting with precipitation and meteorological tools to its forecasting, hydrological models are described in their applications for operational flood forecasts, considering model uncertainties and their interactions with hydraulic and groundwater models. With regard to flood risk planning, regionalization aspects and the options to utilize historic floods are discussed. New hydrological tools for flood risk assessments for dams and reservoirs are presented. Problems and options to quantify socio-economic risks and how to consider them in multi-criteria assessments of flood risk planning are discussed. This book contributes to the contemporary efforts to reduce flood risk at the European scale. Using many real-world examples, it is useful for scientists and practitioners at different levels and with different interests.

The second edition of the highly acclaimed Wind Power in Power Systems has been thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the latest challenges associated with increasing wind power penetration levels. Since its first release, practical experiences with high wind power penetration levels have significantly increased. This book presents an overview of the lessons learned in integrating wind power into power systems and provides an outlook of the relevant issues and solutions to allow even higher wind power penetration levels. This includes the development of standard wind turbine simulation models. This extensive update has 23 brand new chapters in cutting-edge areas including offshore wind farms and storage options, performance validation and certification for grid codes, and the provision of reactive power and voltage control from wind power plants. Key features: Offers an international perspective on integrating a high penetration of wind power into the power system, from basic network interconnection to industry deregulation; Outlines the methodology and results of European and North American large-scale grid integration studies; Extensive practical experience from wind power and power system experts and transmission systems operators in Germany, Denmark, Spain, UK, Ireland, USA, China and New Zealand; Presents various wind turbine designs from the electrical perspective and models for their simulation, and discusses industry standards and world-wide grid codes, along with power quality issues; Considers concepts to increase penetration of wind power in power systems, from wind turbine, power plant and power system redesign to smart grid and storage solutions. Carefully edited for a highly coherent structure, this work remains an essential reference for power system engineers, transmission and distribution network operator and planner, wind turbine designers, wind project developers and wind energy consultants dealing with the integration of wind power into the distribution or transmission network. Up-to-date and comprehensive, it is also useful for graduate students, researchers, regulation authorities, and policy makers who work in the area of wind power and need to understand the relevant power system integration issues.

Computer simulations and modelling are used frequently in science and engineering, in applications ranging from the understanding of natural and artificial phenomena to the design, test and manufacturing stages of production. This widespread use necessarily implies that a detailed knowledge of the limitations of computer simulations is required. In particular, the usefulness of a computer simulation is directly dependent on the user's knowledge of the uncertainty in the simulation. Typical limitations of computer simulations include uncertainty in the data, parameter uncertainty, errors in the initial data, modelling errors, unmodelled phenomena, reduced order models, and approximations and numerical errors. Although an improvement in the physical understanding of the phenomena being modelled is an important requirement of a good computer simulation, the simulation will be plagued by deficiencies if the limitations listed above are not considered when analyzing its results. Since uncertainties can never be completely eliminated, they must be quantified and their propagation through the computations must be considered. The uses of computer modelling are diverse, and one particular application, the effect of uncertainty in geometric computations, is considered in this book. In particular, geometric computations occur extensively in geometric modelling, computer vision, computer graphics and pattern recognition. Uncertainty in Geometric Computations contains the proceedings of a workshop that was held in Sheffield, United Kingdom, in which the management and assessment of uncertainty in geometric computations was considered. The theme that unites these four subject areas is the requirement to perform computations on real geometric data, which (i) may have errors, for example, the tolerance of a coordinate measuring machine that is used in reverse engineering, and/or (ii) is incomplete because of occlusion, which may occur in computer vision, for example, a face recognition system. These characteristics of real geometric data impose tight constraints on the methods and algorithms that are used for their processing and interrogation, and this workshop provided a forum for their discussion. One of the novel features of the workshop was the wide background of the audience and invited speakers – applied mathematicians, computer scientists and engineers – and this provided a forum for the establishment of new collaborative links between mathematicians and engineers, thereby emphasizing the interdisciplinary nature of the many outstanding problems.

Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.

Exploit the power and potential of Big Data to revolutionizebusiness outcomes Big Data Revolution is a guide to improving performance,making better decisions, and transforming business through theeffective use of Big Data. In this collaborative work by an IBMVice President of Big Data Products and an Oxford Research Fellow,this book presents inside stories that demonstrate the power andpotential of Big Data within the business realm. Readers are guidedthrough tried-and-true methodologies for getting more out of data,and using it to the utmost advantage. This book describes the majortrends emerging in the field, the pitfalls and triumphs beingexperienced, and the many considerations surrounding Big Data, allwhile guiding readers toward better decision making from theperspective of a data scientist. Companies are generating data faster than ever before, andmanaging that data has become a major challenge. With the rightstrategy, Big Data can be a powerful tool for creating effectivebusiness solutions – but deep understanding is key whenapplying it to individual business needs. Big DataRevolution provides the insight executives need to incorporateBig Data into a better business strategy, improving outcomes withinnovation and efficient use of technology. Examine the major emerging patterns in Big Data Consider the debate surrounding the ethical use of data Recognize patterns and improve personal and organizationalperformance Make more informed decisions with quantifiable results In an information society, it is becoming increasingly importantto make sense of data in an economically viable way. It can drivenew revenue streams and give companies a competitive advantage,providing a way forward for businesses navigating an increasinglycomplex marketplace. Big Data Revolution provides expertinsight on the tool that can revolutionize industries.

Issues in Global Environment: Climate and Climate Change: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Global Environment—Climate and Climate Change. The editors have built Issues in Global Environment: Climate and Climate Change: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Global Environment—Climate and Climate Change in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Global Environment: Climate and Climate Change: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

This is a theoretical and practical guide on how to undertake and navigate advanced research in the arts, humanities and social sciences.

This topical volume of the Journal of Pure and Applied Geophysics utilizes new information not previously accessible for fog related research. It focuses on surface and remote sensing observations of fog, various numerical model applications using new parameterizations, fog climatology, and new statistical methods. The results presented in this special issue come from research efforts in North America and Europe.

Hydroinformatics is an emerging subject that is expected to gather speed, momentum and critical mass throughout the forthcoming decades of the 21st century. This book provides a broad account of numerous advances in that field - a rapidly developing discipline covering the application of information and communication technologies, modelling and computational intelligence in aquatic environments. A systematic survey, classified according to the methods used (neural networks, fuzzy logic and evolutionary optimization, in particular) is offered, together with illustrated practical applications for solving various water-related issues. ...