Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction
Author: Haraldur Olafsson,Jian-Wen Bao
Publsiher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 364
Release: 2020-12-08
ISBN 10: 0128157100
ISBN 13: 9780128157107
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction Book Review:

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast
Author: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publsiher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2006-10-09
ISBN 10: 9780309180535
ISBN 13: 0309180538
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Completing the Forecast Book Review:

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction
Author: Thomas Tomkins Warner
Publsiher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 550
Release: 2010-12-02
ISBN 10: 9780521513890
ISBN 13: 0521513898
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Book Review:

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.

Meteorology at the Millennium

Meteorology at the Millennium
Author: Robert P. Pearce
Publsiher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 333
Release: 2005-02-22
ISBN 10: 008051149X
ISBN 13: 9780080511498
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Meteorology at the Millennium Book Review:

Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines. Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come. The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets. This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling

Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling
Author: András Bátkai,Petra Csomós,István Faragó,András Horányi,Gabriella Szépszó
Publsiher: Springer
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2016-11-08
ISBN 10: 3319401572
ISBN 13: 9783319401577
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling Book Review:

This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the development fields discussed, to demonstrate their mathematical complexity and, more importantly, to encourage mathematicians to contribute to the further success of such practical applications as weather forecasting and climate change projections. Written by leading experts in the field, the book provides an attractive and diverse introduction to areas in which mathematicians and modellers from the meteorological community can cooperate and help each other solve the problems that operational weather centres face, now and in the near future. Readers engaged in meteorological research will become more familiar with the corresponding mathematical background, while mathematicians working in numerical analysis, partial differential equations, or stochastic analysis will be introduced to further application fields of their research area, and will find stimulation and motivation for their future research work.

Operational Weather Forecasting

Operational Weather Forecasting
Author: Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling
Publsiher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 248
Release: 2012-12-06
ISBN 10: 1118447638
ISBN 13: 9781118447635
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Operational Weather Forecasting Book Review:

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use andwhen they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studiesto contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemblemethods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satelliteimagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experiencein both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather andClimate’

Air Traffic Management and Systems III

Air Traffic Management and Systems III
Author: Electronic Navigation Research Institute
Publsiher: Springer
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2019-06-21
ISBN 10: 9811370869
ISBN 13: 9789811370861
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Air Traffic Management and Systems III Book Review:

This proceedings provides novel concepts and techniques for air traffic management (ATM) and communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) systems. The volume consists of selected papers from the 5th ENRI International Workshop on ATM/CNS (EIWAC2017) held in Tokyo in November 2017, the theme of which was “Drafting Future Skies”. Included are key topics to realize safer and more efficient skies in the future, linked to the integrated conference theme consisting of long-term visions based on presentations from various fields. The proceedings is dedicated not only to researchers, academicians, and university students, but also to engineers in the industry, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), and regulators of aviation.

Monthly Weather Review

Monthly Weather Review
Author: Anonim
Publsiher: Unknown
Total Pages: 135
Release: 1999
ISBN 10: 1928374650XXX
ISBN 13: PSU:000047384538
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Monthly Weather Review Book Review:

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
Author: Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Publsiher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2016-11-15
ISBN 10: 1119028108
ISBN 13: 9781119028109
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment Book Review:

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Advances in Hydroinformatics

Advances in Hydroinformatics
Author: Philippe Gourbesville,Jean Cunge,Guy Caignaert
Publsiher: Springer
Total Pages: 1231
Release: 2018-02-26
ISBN 10: 9811072183
ISBN 13: 9789811072185
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Advances in Hydroinformatics Book Review:

This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems
Author: Julia Henriette Keller
Publsiher: KIT Scientific Publishing
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2012
ISBN 10: 3866449844
ISBN 13: 9783866449848
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems Book Review:

The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction Richardson s Dream

The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction  Richardson s Dream
Author: Peter Lynch
Publsiher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 279
Release: 2006-11-02
ISBN 10: 0521857295
ISBN 13: 9780521857291
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction Richardson s Dream Book Review:

This book, first published in 2006, is a history of weather forecasting for researchers, graduate students and professionals in numerical weather forecasting.

Flood Handbook

Flood Handbook
Author: Saeid Eslamian,Faezeh Eslamian
Publsiher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 640
Release: 2022-04-11
ISBN 10: 042987412X
ISBN 13: 9780429874123
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Flood Handbook Book Review:

Floods are difficult to prevent but can be managed in order to reduce their environmental, social, cultural, and economic impacts. Flooding poses a serious threat to life and property, and therefore it’s very important that flood risks be taken into account during any planning process. This handbook presents different aspects of flooding in the context of a changing climate and across various geographical locations. Written by experts from around the world, it examines flooding in various climates and landscapes, taking into account environmental, ecological, hydrological, and geomorphic factors, and considers urban, agricultural, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas. Features: Presents the main principles and applications of the science of floods, including engineering and technology, natural science, and sociological implications. Considers floods in urban, agricultural, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas. Covers flood control structures as well as preparedness and response methods. Written in a global context, by contributors from around the world.

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling
Author: José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Publsiher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 472
Release: 2020-08-19
ISBN 10: 3030536696
ISBN 13: 9783030536695
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling Book Review:

This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast
Author: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publsiher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2006-11-09
ISBN 10: 0309102553
ISBN 13: 9780309102551
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Completing the Forecast Book Review:

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction

Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction
Author: Jean Coiffier
Publsiher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 135
Release: 2011-12-01
ISBN 10: 1139502700
ISBN 13: 9781139502702
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction Book Review:

Numerical models have become essential tools in environmental science, particularly in weather forecasting and climate prediction. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the techniques used in these fields, with emphasis on the design of the most recent numerical models of the atmosphere. It presents a short history of numerical weather prediction and its evolution, before describing the various model equations and how to solve them numerically. It outlines the main elements of a meteorological forecast suite, and the theory is illustrated throughout with practical examples of operational models and parameterizations of physical processes. This book is founded on the author's many years of experience, as a scientist at Météo-France and teaching university-level courses. It is a practical and accessible textbook for graduate courses and a handy resource for researchers and professionals in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climatology, as well as the related disciplines of fluid dynamics, hydrology and oceanography.

Environmental Modelling

Environmental Modelling
Author: Keith Beven
Publsiher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2018-09-03
ISBN 10: 1482288575
ISBN 13: 9781482288575
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Environmental Modelling Book Review:

Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk

Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Ralph C. Smith
Publsiher: SIAM
Total Pages: 383
Release: 2013-12-02
ISBN 10: 1611973228
ISBN 13: 9781611973228
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Uncertainty Quantification Book Review:

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses
Author: Pallav Ray,Yuanzhi Zhang
Publsiher: BoD – Books on Demand
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2013-05-22
ISBN 10: 9535111329
ISBN 13: 9789535111320
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses Book Review:

Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Volume II

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis  Volume II
Author: Dan G. Cacuci,Mihaela Ionescu-Bujor,Ionel Michael Navon
Publsiher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2005-05-16
ISBN 10: 020348357X
ISBN 13: 9780203483572
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Volume II Book Review:

As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative convective model for climate simulations, and large-scale models for numerical weather prediction.