Integrated Population Models

Integrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS is the first book on integrated population models, which constitute a powerful framework for combining multiple data sets from the population and the individual levels to estimate demographic parameters, and population size and trends. These models identify drivers of population dynamics and forecast the composition and trajectory of a population. Written by two population ecologists with expertise on integrated population modeling, this book provides a comprehensive synthesis of the relevant theory of integrated population models with an extensive overview of practical applications, using Bayesian methods by means of case studies. The book contains fully-documented, complete code for fitting all models in the free software, R and JAGS. It also includes all required code for pre- and post-model-fitting analysis. Integrated Population Models is an invaluable reference for researchers and practitioners involved in population analysis, and for graduate-level students in ecology, conservation biology, wildlife management, and related fields. The text is ideal for self-study and advanced graduate-level courses. Offers practical and accessible ecological applications of IPMs (integrated population models) Provides full documentation of analyzed code in the Bayesian framework Written and structured for an easy approach to the subject, especially for non-statisticians

Integrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS is the first book on integrated population models, which constitute a powerful framework for combining multiple data sets from the population and the individual levels to estimate demographic parameters, and population size and trends. These models identify drivers of population dynamics and forecast the composition and trajectory of a population. Written by two population ecologists with expertise on integrated population modeling, this book provides a comprehensive synthesis of the relevant theory of integrated population models with an extensive overview of practical applications, using Bayesian methods by means of case studies. The book contains fully-documented, complete code for fitting all models in the free software, R and JAGS. It also includes all required code for pre- and post-model-fitting analysis. Integrated Population Models is an invaluable reference for researchers and practitioners involved in population analysis, and for graduate-level students in ecology, conservation biology, wildlife management, and related fields. The text is ideal for self-study and advanced graduate-level courses. Offers practical and accessible ecological applications of IPMs (integrated population models) Provides full documentation of analyzed code in the Bayesian framework Written and structured for an easy approach to the subject, especially for non-statisticians

Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS, and its open-source sister OpenBugs, is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics. Comprehensive and richly commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software R Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGS in R

This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations. The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity, population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models. The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.

A synthesis of contemporary analytical and modeling approaches in population ecology The book provides an overview of the key analytical approaches that are currently used in demographic, genetic, and spatial analyses in population ecology. The chapters present current problems, introduce advances in analytical methods and models, and demonstrate the applications of quantitative methods to ecological data. The book covers new tools for designing robust field studies; estimation of abundance and demographic rates; matrix population models and analyses of population dynamics; and current approaches for genetic and spatial analysis. Each chapter is illustrated by empirical examples based on real datasets, with a companion website that offers online exercises and examples of computer code in the R statistical software platform. Fills a niche for a book that emphasizes applied aspects of population analysis Covers many of the current methods being used to analyse population dynamics and structure Illustrates the application of specific analytical methods through worked examples based on real datasets Offers readers the opportunity to work through examples or adapt the routines to their own datasets using computer code in the R statistical platform Population Ecology in Practice is an excellent book for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students taking courses in population ecology or ecological statistics, as well as established researchers needing a desktop reference for contemporary methods used to develop robust population assessments.

Integrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS is the first resource on integrated population models, which constitute a powerful framework for combining multiple data sets from the population and the individual levels to estimate demographic parameters and population size. These models identify drivers of population dynamics and forecast the composition and trajectory of a population. Offers practical and accessible ecological applications of IPMs (integrated population models) Provides full documentation of analyzed code in the Bayesian framework Written and structured for an easy approach to the subject, especially for non-statisticians

Spatial Capture-Recapture provides a comprehensive how-to manual with detailed examples of spatial capture-recapture models based on current technology and knowledge. Spatial Capture-Recapture provides you with an extensive step-by-step analysis of many data sets using different software implementations. The authors' approach is practical – it embraces Bayesian and classical inference strategies to give the reader different options to get the job done. In addition, Spatial Capture-Recapture provides data sets, sample code and computing scripts in an R package. Comprehensive reference on revolutionary new methods in ecology makes this the first and only book on the topic Every methodological element has a detailed worked example with a code template, allowing you to learn by example Includes an R package that contains all computer code and data sets on companion website

This novel book provides the reader with the fundamentals of data collection, model construction, analyses, and interpretation across a wide repertoire of demographic techniques and protocols, clearly guided throughout with fully reproducible R scripts.

An important first step in studying the demography of wild animals is to identify the animals uniquely through applying markings, such as rings, tags, and bands. Once the animals are encountered again, researchers can study different forms of capture-recapture data to estimate features, such as the mortality and size of the populations. Capture-rec

Bringing Bayesian Models to Life empowers the reader to extend, enhance, and implement statistical models for ecological and environmental data analysis. We open the black box and show the reader how to connect modern statistical models to computer algorithms. These algorithms allow the user to fit models that answer their scientific questions without needing to rely on automated Bayesian software. We show how to handcraft statistical models that are useful in ecological and environmental science including: linear and generalized linear models, spatial and time series models, occupancy and capture-recapture models, animal movement models, spatio-temporal models, and integrated population-models. Features: R code implementing algorithms to fit Bayesian models using real and simulated data examples. A comprehensive review of statistical models commonly used in ecological and environmental science. Overview of Bayesian computational methods such as importance sampling, MCMC, and HMC. Derivations of the necessary components to construct statistical algorithms from scratch. Bringing Bayesian Models to Life contains a comprehensive treatment of models and associated algorithms for fitting the models to data. We provide detailed and annotated R code in each chapter and apply it to fit each model we present to either real or simulated data for instructional purposes. Our code shows how to create every result and figure in the book so that readers can use and modify it for their own analyses. We provide all code and data in an organized set of directories available at the authors' websites.

Integrated Population Biology and Modeling: Part A offers very complex and precise realities of quantifying modern and traditional methods of understanding populations and population dynamics. Chapters cover emerging topics of note, including Longevity dynamics, Modeling human-environment interactions, Survival Probabilities from 5-Year Cumulative Life Table Survival Ratios (Tx+5/Tx): Some Innovative Methodological Investigations, Cell migration Models, Evolutionary Dynamics of Cancer Cells, an Integrated approach for modeling of coastal lagoons: A case for Chilka Lake, India, Population and metapopulation dynamics, Mortality analysis: measures and models, Stationary Population Models, Are there biological and social limits to human longevity?, Probability models in biology, Stochastic Models in Population Biology, and more. Covers emerging topics of note in the subject matter Presents chapters on Longevity dynamics, Modeling human-environment interactions, Survival Probabilities from 5-Year Cumulative Life Table Survival Ratios (Tx+5/Tx), and more

Integrated Population Biology and Modeling: Part A offers very complex and precise realities of quantifying modern and traditional methods of understanding populations and population dynamics. Chapters cover emerging topics of note, including Longevity dynamics, Modeling human-environment interactions, Survival Probabilities from 5-Year Cumulative Life Table Survival Ratios (Tx+5/Tx): Some Innovative Methodological Investigations, Cell migration Models, Evolutionary Dynamics of Cancer Cells, an Integrated approach for modeling of coastal lagoons: A case for Chilka Lake, India, Population and metapopulation dynamics, Mortality analysis: measures and models, Stationary Population Models, Are there biological and social limits to human longevity?, Probability models in biology, Stochastic Models in Population Biology, and more. Covers emerging topics of note in the subject matter Presents chapters on Longevity dynamics, Modeling human-environment interactions, Survival Probabilities from 5-Year Cumulative Life Table Survival Ratios (Tx+5/Tx), and more

Individual-based models are an exciting and widely used new tool for ecology. These computational models allow scientists to explore the mechanisms through which population and ecosystem ecology arises from how individuals interact with each other and their environment. This book provides the first in-depth treatment of individual-based modeling and its use to develop theoretical understanding of how ecological systems work, an approach the authors call "individual-based ecology.? Grimm and Railsback start with a general primer on modeling: how to design models that are as simple as possible while still allowing specific problems to be solved, and how to move efficiently through a cycle of pattern-oriented model design, implementation, and analysis. Next, they address the problems of theory and conceptual framework for individual-based ecology: What is "theory"? That is, how do we develop reusable models of how system dynamics arise from characteristics of individuals? What conceptual framework do we use when the classical differential equation framework no longer applies? An extensive review illustrates the ecological problems that have been addressed with individual-based models. The authors then identify how the mechanics of building and using individual-based models differ from those of traditional science, and provide guidance on formulating, programming, and analyzing models. This book will be helpful to ecologists interested in modeling, and to other scientists interested in agent-based modeling.

Ecologists and environmental managers rely on mathematical models, both to understand ecological systems and to predict future system behavior. In turn, models rely on appropriate estimates of their parameters. This book brings together a diverse and scattered literature, to provide clear guidance on how to estimate parameters for models of animal populations. It is not a recipe book of statistical procedures. Instead, it concentrates on how to select the best approach to parameter estimation for a particular problem, and how to ensure that the quality estimated is the appropriate one for the specific purpose of the modelling exercise. Commencing with a toolbox of useful generic approaches to parameter estimation, the book deals with methods for estimating parameters for single populations. These parameters include population size, birth and death rates, and the population growth rate. For such parameters, rigorous statistical theory has been developed, and software is readily available. The problem is to select the optimal sampling design and method of analysis. The second part of the book deals with parameters that describe spatial dynamics, and ecological interactions such as competition, predation and parasitism. Here the principle problems are designing appropriate experiments and ensuring that the quantities measured by the experiments are relevant to the ecological models in which they will be used. This book will be essential reading for ecological researchers, postgraduate students and environmental managers who need to address an ecological problem through a population model. It is accessible to anyone with an understanding of basic statistical methods and population ecology. Unique in concentrating on parameter estimation within modelling. Fills a glaring gap in the literature. Not too technical, so suitable for the statistically inept. Methods explained in algebra, but also in worked examples using commonly available computer packages (SAS, GLIM, and some more specialised packages where relvant). Some spreadsheet based examples also included.

Using Science to Improve the BLM Wild Horse and Burro Program: A Way Forward reviews the science that underpins the Bureau of Land Management's oversight of free-ranging horses and burros on federal public lands in the western United States, concluding that constructive changes could be implemented. The Wild Horse and Burro Program has not used scientifically rigorous methods to estimate the population sizes of horses and burros, to model the effects of management actions on the animals, or to assess the availability and use of forage on rangelands. Evidence suggests that horse populations are growing by 15 to 20 percent each year, a level that is unsustainable for maintaining healthy horse populations as well as healthy ecosystems. Promising fertility-control methods are available to help limit this population growth, however. In addition, science-based methods exist for improving population estimates, predicting the effects of management practices in order to maintain genetically diverse, healthy populations, and estimating the productivity of rangelands. Greater transparency in how science-based methods are used to inform management decisions may help increase public confidence in the Wild Horse and Burro Program.

Statistical and mathematical models are defined by parameters that describe different characteristics of those models. Ideally it would be possible to find parameter estimates for every parameter in that model, but, in some cases, this is not possible. For example, two parameters that only ever appear in the model as a product could not be estimated individually; only the product can be estimated. Such a model is said to be parameter redundant, or the parameters are described as non-identifiable. This book explains why parameter redundancy and non-identifiability is a problem and the different methods that can be used for detection, including in a Bayesian context. Key features of this book: Detailed discussion of the problems caused by parameter redundancy and non-identifiability Explanation of the different general methods for detecting parameter redundancy and non-identifiability, including symbolic algebra and numerical methods Chapter on Bayesian identifiability Throughout illustrative examples are used to clearly demonstrate each problem and method. Maple and R code are available for these examples More in-depth focus on the areas of discrete and continuous state-space models and ecological statistics, including methods that have been specifically developed for each of these areas This book is designed to make parameter redundancy and non-identifiability accessible and understandable to a wide audience from masters and PhD students to researchers, from mathematicians and statisticians to practitioners using mathematical or statistical models.

Birds of the world are portrayed in all their colorful glory by Tim Flach, the world’s leading animal photographer Radiating grace, intelligence, and humor, and always in motion, birds tantalize the human imagination. Working for years in his studio and the field, Tim Flach has portrayed nature’s most exquisite creatures alertly at rest or dramatically in flight, capturing intricate feather patterns and subtle coloration invisible to the naked eye. From familiar friends to marvelous rarities, Flach’s birds convey the beauty and wonder of the natural world. Here are all manner of songbirds, parrots, and birds of paradise; birds of prey, water birds, and theatrical domestic breeds. The brilliant ornithologist Richard O. Prum is our guide to this magical kingdom.

The field of cognitive modeling has progressed beyond modeling cognition in the context of simple laboratory tasks and begun to attack the problem of modeling it in more complex, realistic environments, such as those studied by researchers in the field of human factors. The problems that the cognitive modeling community is tackling focus on modeling certain problems of communication and control that arise when integrating with the external environment factors such as implicit and explicit knowledge, emotion, cognition, and the cognitive system. These problems must be solved in order to produce integrated cognitive models of moderately complex tasks. Architectures of cognition in these tasks focus on the control of a central system, which includes control of the central processor itself, initiation of functional processes, such as visual search and memory retrieval, and harvesting the results of these functional processes. Because the control of the central system is conceptually different from the internal control required by individual functional processes, a complete architecture of cognition must incorporate two types of theories of control: Type 1 theories of the structure, functionality, and operation of the controller, and type 2 theories of the internal control of functional processes, including how and what they communicate to the controller. This book presents the current state of the art for both types of theories, as well as contrasts among current approaches to human-performance models. It will be an important resource for professional and student researchers in cognitive science, cognitive-engineering, and human-factors. Contributors: Kevin A. Gluck, Jerry T. Ball, Michael A. Krusmark, Richard W. Pew, Chris R. Sims, Vladislav D. Veksler, John R. Anderson, Ron Sun, Nicholas L. Cassimatis, Randy J. Brou, Andrew D. Egerton, Stephanie M. Doane, Christopher W. Myers, Hansjörg Neth, Jeremy M Wolfe, Marc Pomplun, Ronald A. Rensink, Hansjörg Neth, Chris R. Sims, Peter M. Todd, Lael J. Schooler, Wai-Tat Fu, Michael C. Mozer, Sachiko Kinoshita, Michael Shettel, Alex Kirlik, Vladislav D. Veksler, Michael J. Schoelles, Jerome R. Busemeyer, Eric Dimperio, Ryan K. Jessup, Jonathan Gratch, Stacy Marsella, Glenn Gunzelmann, Kevin A. Gluck, Scott Price, Hans P. A. Van Dongen, David F. Dinges, Frank E. Ritter, Andrew L. Reifers, Laura Cousino Klein, Michael J. Schoelles, Eva Hudlicka, Hansjörg Neth, Christopher W. Myers, Dana Ballard, Nathan Sprague, Laurence T. Maloney, Julia Trommershäuser, Michael S. Landy, A. Hornof, Michael J. Schoelles, David Kieras, Dario D. Salvucci, Niels Taatgen, Erik M. Altmann, Richard A. Carlson, Andrew Howes, Richard L. Lewis, Alonso Vera, Richard P. Cooper, and Michael D. Byrne

This book develops the mathematical tools essential for students in the life sciences to describe interacting systems and predict their behavior. From predator-prey populations in an ecosystem, to hormone regulation within the body, the natural world abounds in dynamical systems that affect us profoundly. Complex feedback relations and counter-intuitive responses are common in nature; this book develops the quantitative skills needed to explore these interactions. Differential equations are the natural mathematical tool for quantifying change, and are the driving force throughout this book. The use of Euler’s method makes nonlinear examples tractable and accessible to a broad spectrum of early-stage undergraduates, thus providing a practical alternative to the procedural approach of a traditional Calculus curriculum. Tools are developed within numerous, relevant examples, with an emphasis on the construction, evaluation, and interpretation of mathematical models throughout. Encountering these concepts in context, students learn not only quantitative techniques, but how to bridge between biological and mathematical ways of thinking. Examples range broadly, exploring the dynamics of neurons and the immune system, through to population dynamics and the Google PageRank algorithm. Each scenario relies only on an interest in the natural world; no biological expertise is assumed of student or instructor. Building on a single prerequisite of Precalculus, the book suits a two-quarter sequence for first or second year undergraduates, and meets the mathematical requirements of medical school entry. The later material provides opportunities for more advanced students in both mathematics and life sciences to revisit theoretical knowledge in a rich, real-world framework. In all cases, the focus is clear: how does the math help us understand the science?

Dr. Timothy Schowalter has succeeded in creating a unique, updated treatment of insect ecology. This revised and expanded text looks at how insects adapt to environmental conditions while maintaining the ability to substantially alter their environment. It covers a range of topics- from individual insects that respond to local changes in the environment and affect resource distribution, to entire insect communities that have the capacity to modify ecosystem conditions. Insect Ecology, Second Edition, synthesizes the latest research in the field and has been produced in full color throughout. It is ideal for students in both entomology and ecology-focused programs. NEW TO THIS EDITION: * New topics such as elemental defense by plants, chaotic models, molecular methods to measure disperson, food web relationships, and more * Expanded sections on plant defenses, insect learning, evolutionary tradeoffs, conservation biology and more * Includes more than 350 new references * More than 40 new full-color figures